Do you love sports? Do you love to have a little action on sports? There are many sports fans, just like me, that love to have a small wager on sports events. I have never looked at this as a way to make a living, but have always felt that with enough research and disciplined theories, one can have a lot of fun and make a little extra money at the same time.
I have been an avid sports bettor for the past thirty years and started at an age that was far too young. I remember placing wagers when I was a teen, and stashing all of my winnings, attempting to save enough money for my first car. The good news is that I did save enough for my car, the bad news is that my parents thought that I was selling drugs, and grounded me for a month! I tried to explain that I made all of it gambling on sports events and playing golf. They ultimately believed me and cut my grounding short, but it seemed unfair at the time. Now that I have my own children, I think I understand it a little more!
Anyway, through my thirty years of betting on sports, I have learned many lessons. Some the hard way, and some came through research. Ultimately, the internet has been the greatest tool to help develop systems and research games to make better decisions and develop better systems. I am a believer that you can find systems that pay a profit and sticking to them takes discipline, but it pays off, and there is a certain satisfaction finding an edge over the line.
Today, I am going to cover two important items regarding sports-betting. What does the line represent, and what is the most successful money management system. It has been my experience through my own tests and through watching many friends over the years, that a good money management system is the best place to start. Every sports-bettor should establish first, an amount of money to set aside for betting. That amount is referred to as your bankroll. Your wagers should always be the same amount and should represent 3%-5% of your bankroll. That being said, if you have set aside 500 dollars, then a 5% wager would be a $25 wager. 3% is the conservative and 5% is a little more aggressive. As your bankroll increases, so do your wagers! You should always wager the same amount on the games and look to create an advantage by following winning systems and achieving a winning percentage. It only takes a 53% winning percentage to create profit! As an example, if you wagered on 100 games, you win 53 and lose 47. Your winning games create a plus 6 units. Your losing games including juice, which is typically 10%, takes 4.7 of those units, leaving you with a 1.3 unit profit. The target for me, and my systems is 60% or higher, which creates a little higher profit. Remember, there is no sure thing, or lock, so stay away from loading up on certain games, or chasing losses by doubling up! That is a sure recipe for disaster!
The reason you want to stay away from loading up and doubling up, is a majority of the time, the games that look the easiest, don’t work out. That is a result of some very sharp line-setters, and that takes us to our next point of emphasis for today. What does the line represent? The line represent approximately 80% what the true line of a game should be, and about 20% factor of what the general public opinion of the game will be. That hits us in two areas. First, when public opinion is strongly in favor of one team, the line will be set higher than it should be on that particular team, and as the money is wagered on that team, the line will continue to rise as the week progresses. This is why you should not load up on the seemingly sure thing games. When public opinion is dominant on one team, and that is usually the favored team, it is called a “trap game.” Many experienced sports gamblers will bet opposite the dominant public opinion, just based on line setting. You see, the line will be set to create action on both sides. If the sportsbooks know that public opinion will be strong on one team, they will automatically set the line a little higher on that team to create more balanced wagering. A prime example is Monday Night Football. A team that easily covers on Monday night will be grossly over-rated in the public opinion, and the line will likely favor that team a little more than it should. The biggest advantage is usually the team that gets embarrassed on Monday Night Football. They usually play with a giant chip on their shoulder the following week, and the line is typically set against them due to the fact that the entire nation just watched them play poorly. In the 2008 season, the ATS loser on Monday night covered 9 of 15 games the following week, which is a 60% cover rate. Over the long haul, it is higher than that!
As we venture through the wagering world of sports, there are many advantages and many situations to avoid. If I have one point of emphasis to start your wagering experience, it is to develop a money management mentality first, then use winning systems to create your wagering platform. And remember, sports-betting is fun, but it is hard to make a living. However, if you follow good systems and money management, you can have fun, and make a little extra cash! And believe me, it is always a lot more fun to win than to lose!
